The aftermath of Crans-Montana has been rather agitating for the Turkish Cypriot community. Turkish Cypriot and Turkish delegations led by Akıncı and Çavuşoğlu respectively allegedly threw a hail mary in 2017's negotiations. The claims suggest the latest offer allegedly included reducing the current number of Turkish military personnel from 40,000 to 650, a "sunset clause" for the guarantees to be terminated after a single-digit number of years, and a substantive handover of the Turkish Cypriot-controlled land (around 36% to 29%) in exchange for constitutional instruments to secure strong political equality between two communities, including rotating presidency.

Anastiasiades' alleged refusal to secure political equality and rotating presidency, as well as his pertinacity for "zero troops and zero guarantees" led to the collapse of the table. Çavuşoğlu later argued that the Greek Cypriot leader is also desiring a two-state solution. The post-Crans-Montana turmoil saw a polarizing election campaign for Turkish Cypriot leadership. Deep schism between Akıncı and the Turkish government led to a fierce battle. Turkish government openly criticised Akıncı and the "slanted media" unreservedly portrayed him as a traitor. The Turkish Embassy in Nicosia was mentioned by Akıncı as a headquarter for Tatar's campaign. The interference was unprecedented for almost a decade, where it was arguably only shy of Erdoğan waving a Tatar banner in Sarayönü.

As well as distributing maps of "land given in Crans-Montana" -interestingly not being found today- in southern Mesaoria, ELAM's one-off protest by the border of Deryneia was very convenient towards mobilizing the nationalist voters who might not caucus otherwise, days before the run-off between Akıncı and Tatar. The "opening" of Varosha, ELAM's convenient outburst, the illusion of a successful COVID-19 management, the full support of Turkish government, alleged cases of bribe, extortion and duress are deduced as possible outcomes leading towards the victory of Tatar. However, the lion's share should well be Anastasiades' as his unyielding stance was vital to persuade a significant part of Turkish Cypriot community that a federal solution is unlikely and Akıncı's ideas are outdated. So, however accommodationist he might act in Geneva, it is already too late for a lot, and we all know about that.

The reverse of the shield is no innocent. Turkish policy of constant state of tension is being prolonged for almost half a decade. The presence of warships in Eastern Mediterranean, constant references to neo-Ottomanist ideologies, and the deterioration of internal civil rights are quite worrying for the actors around Turkey. The one-man show is getting frustrating for some of the allies, including the United States under the Biden-Harris Administration. Turkish nationalist and conservative camps' usual jargon of "Cyprus is too valuable to be left to the will of the people of Cyprus", is I think being reflected as "Turkey is too valuable to be left to the will of the people of Turkey" by the Americans. This led to a game of prisoner's base, where the West and Turkey are fighting over forming new and better allies, as well as trying to hurt each other through economic maneuvers. Turkish economy is significantly damaged, where it is argued as being beyond repair if the current ruling power continues.

The Turkish government is desperately looking to consolidate their conservative and nationalist bases, and Cyprus is always an easy point. Also, Cyprus has always been a valuable bargaining chip whenever Turkey and the European Union (EU) are set to talk about their political and economical relations. So, Turkey might be simply using the Cypriot problem to get leverage while discussing aids and the refugee situation with the EU.

All of these actions are simply extending the status quo, and the Turkish Cypriots do not have an important say on whatever is going on. It is unimaginable to think Tatar putting the Turkish Cypriot interests over the interests of the Turkish government, since he is simply not in a position to be demanding anything, provided that he got his dear seat by the courtesy and hard work of Erdoğan and Co. In the meantime, Turkish Cypriots are facing economic, social and political depression where the individual and/or collective decisions are not mattering anymore. The currency is moving on, and so is the youth. Migration is a realty today, no less than how it was in the 20's and the 30's, or the 50's and the 60's...

Photo: Reuters