Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been one of the most disputed conflicts which has ties to the early 20th century. Both sides have inevitably suffered in terms of deaths and injuries, as well as economic and diplomatic costs. Being neighbours in the Caucasus region already offers some chances of conflict and violence. Disagreements can also be triggered if the two neighbours are part of the declining beast which was losing its economic superiority due to its incompetency in the nuclear arms race. A tendency for conflict may also arise if the borders are disputed, however, it seems that neither being part of declining emperor nor troublesome borders are the drivers of protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, instead there are some wolfs around these two countries that benefit from the violence and instil nationalism to gain economic and political merits. Before analysing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is useful to evaluate its development retrospectively.
Background of the conflict
The territorial disputes date back to the late First World War years where the Bolshevik Revolution changed the fate of the region. When the Bolshevik Party captured most of the Caucasian region, Nagorno-Karabakh which had predominantly ethnical Armenian population was allocated the Soviet Socialist Republic of Armenia, but this ruling was then reversed and it was given to the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan. This was a political move to gain the sympathy of Turkey in a hostile post-war international environment as Turkey was having a national independence war against the Western states.
After a relatively stable period, the decline of the Soviet Union caused a decrease in control over the distant parts of the union, particularly in Central Asia. For example, on 20 February 1988 Nagorno-Karabakh Parliament voted to unite with Armenia. This led to various pogroms and atrocities by both sides, in which separatist Armenians were supported by Armenia, while ethnic minority Azerbaijanis were supported by Azerbaijan, which sowed the seeds of the future proxy war. During the war years, both sides have experienced bloody clashes and inhumane ways of killings. One of the prominent ones, Khojaly massacre, was conducted by the Armenian separatist groups against the Azerbaijani minority, and Azerbaijanis villages were shelled by Armenian tanks and artillery, the death toll is still disputed but it was estimated that at least 200 people were killed with 180 people missing according to Helsinki Human Rights Watch 1992 report.[1] On the other hand, Maraga massacre organised by Azerbaijan army led to the deaths of 100 Armenians just after the Khojaly massacre.[2] During the inter-ethnical violence between 1988-1994, approximately 30,000 died whilst roughly 1 million were forced to be displaced.[3]
Before the Russian initiated armistice, so-called independent republic, “the Republic of Artsakh” was formed in 1991 that was controlled by ethnic Armenians even though it was located in Azerbaijan territory causing a dissent from Azerbaijan government. Although, the republic enjoys financial backing from the Armenian government, it is not recognized by Armenia and the international community, it is accepted as a part of Azerbaijan territory. Therefore, although it is located in Azerbaijan, it was under invasion because the puppet republic was governed by ethnic Armenians.
Since 1994
Since 1994, intermittent clashes have happened, such as in 2008 when the Mardakert border clash resulted in the deaths of 2 Azerbaijanis and 1 Armenian.[4] In 2014, a military conflict happened in which 14 Azerbaijan soldiers were killed by the Armenian troops [5] and in response to this, an Armenian military helicopter was shot down by Azerbaijan division in Nagorno-Karabakh.[6] Finally, in July one of the most violent conflicts occurred at the north of the region in which 11 soldiers died and each side blamed each other for building-up their militaries and adopting an aggressive stance in the region.[7] Since 27th of September, a new clash has erupted,[8] resulting in lots of war crimes and human rights violations while, as always, the sides blamed each other.[9]
The most striking aspect is that, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a proxy war in which Armenia is supported by Russia, whereas Turkey has been a long-term ally of Azerbaijan, as Turkey even closed its borders with Armenia to support its younger ally Azerbaijan. This alliance was captivated by nationalist rhetoric such as Pan-Turkish “one nation, two states” discourse demonstrating Turkish brotherhood between Turkey and Azerbaijan. On the other hand, Armenia and Russia have been long-term allies since the break down of the Soviet Union.
However, the reality is different; while using romantic nationalism to intervene to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the real aim behind Turkey’s actions is increasing its influence as a regional power in the Middle East and South Caucasia and challenge Russian supremacy in the region. Therefore, its diplomatic and military actions emphasize the importance of its interests rather than helping to its younger ally Azerbaijan. For example, Turkey militarily backed Azerbaijan by supplying military equipment such as drones and sent Syrian rebels who are experienced in fighting mountainous wars to the front lines. Moreover, the recent economic crisis in Turkey which it faces both inflation and unemployment called as stagflation encouraged the government to divert people’s attention to somewhere else rather than the economy. Thus, recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was a good opportunity to manipulate Turkish people as nationalist causes are very sensitive issues that are supported by the opposition parties too, furthermore, with a victory in Azerbaijan, Turkey would protect its energy deals with Azerbaijan because the fighting was close to the transportation corridors. Apart from Turkey, Israel also militarily helped Azerbaijan because a considerable proportion of Israeli oil was supplied by Azerbaijani companies. Therefore, oil interests shaped the political dimension of the conflict.
Russia, on the other hand, has a military base in Armenia and they are both members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military alliance. Moreover, the recent clash between Turkey and Russia where Russia killed several Turkish soldiers in Syria provoked Turkey to adopt a more aggressive stance against Russia. In response to revisionist Turkish actions to reverse Russia’s role in the region, Russia strives to consolidate its sphere of influence and use Armenia to limit Turkey’s desires. The proxy-war between two regional powers can also be seen in Syria where Turkey supports Assad’s enemies like Free Syrian Army whereas Russia backs Assad regime. However, Russia’s dilemma in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was its trade links with Azerbaijan as Russia is one of the biggest arms suppliers of Azerbaijan so it had a cautious policy to avoid undermining Azerbaijan economy. France also supported Armenia as it has a significant Armenian diaspora that would potentially put pressure on French government otherwise the latter may have faced some electoral costs.
Therefore, it is wrong to assume that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is solely contingent on nationalist or religious ties, these two countries are used like pawns by regional powers to improve their geopolitical power in the region and force its rival to give more concessions in the future conflicts. Moreover, the internal politics and economic interests of the countries also play a role in facilitating the violence. The losers of wars are always ordinary people even though wolves use nationalism to conceal their real intentions and interests.
References
[1] Denber R. Bloodshed in the Caucasus Escalation of the Armed Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.(New York: Human Rights Watch Helsinki, 1992).
[2] Cox, C. & Eibner, J. Ethnic Cleansing in Progress: War in Nagorno Karabakh. (Institute for Religious Minorities in the Islamic World, 1993).
[3] McGuinness, D. Azerbaijan Armenia: Karabakh's smouldering conflict. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20528275 (2012).
[4] BBC News. Fatal Armenian-Azeri border clash. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7278483.stm (2008).
[5] The Guardian. Armenian military helicopter shot down by Azerbaijani forces, killing three. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/12/azerbaijani-forces-shoot-down-armenian-military-helicopter (2014).
[6] Kucera, J. Bloody clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over disputed territory. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/04/nagorno-karabakh-clashes-azerbaijan-armenia (2014).
[7] DW. Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes leave several dead in worst hostilities in years. https://www.dw.com/en/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-death-toll-rises-in-nagorno-karabakh/a-55077936 (2020).
[8] BBC News. Armenia and Azerbaijan fight over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54314341 (2020).
[9] Roth, A. Human rights groups detail ‘war crimes’ in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/10/human-rights-groups-detail-war-crimes-in-nagorno-karabakh (2020).
Photo: Amber Clay, Pixabay.